What a week for Nintendo - and for anyone who was planning to buy a new console this decade without having to plunder a savings account. This also applies to PS5 and Xbox fans. The Nintendo Switch 2 has finally been unveiledThe new Mario Kart Tour, nicely packaged with a launch price of 449 US dollars, a strangely ambitious 80-dollar "Mario Kart Tour" spin-off and, as it turns out, a dose of geopolitical chaos on top.
Because no sooner had people in the USA emotionally adjusted to the fact that Nintendo was now apparently placing games in the gourmet segment than the next bombshell came: the Trump administration decided, suddenly and without warning, Levying customs duties on almost everythingwhich does not come from a Mars that will soon be sealed off. Nintendo responded promptly - and postponed the start of pre-orders. Why? They first want to estimate how much more expensive the Nintendo Switch 2 will actually be.
Experts on alert - or not
What follows is a story that is rare even for the games industry: analysts, who normally conjure up entire presentations based on half a rumor, are at a loss this time. Complete.
"I've never experienced any analyst on the phone practically stammering in my ear: 'Well, I don't know'."says an industry observer who prefers to remain anonymous, presumably for fear of further surprises.
And yet, some dared to make cautious forecasts.
Dr. Serkan Toto from Kantan Games is certain: Nintendo will raise the price. And not just for the console. "Games and accessories could also become more expensive - Nintendo probably has no other choice." He gets straight to the point: "Would it surprise you if the Switch 2 now costs 500 US dollars? Not me."
Trump tariffs: the dark soul of trade policy
Mat Piscatella from Circana essentially agrees - even if he is reluctant to make hasty statements. The size and speed of the tariffs would have caught everyone on the wrong foot. Nintendo had probably expected much milder tariffs at the original price. Well, tough luck.
"Any sensible company will now have to rethink prices for US consumers"he says. You can practically see how these tariffs are transforming the USA from the cheapest gaming market to the most expensive.
And then there's the question: What was Nintendo actually thinking with the timing? First a big presentation of the console - then a check to see if it can still be sold at the announced price? Timing like something out of a Wario sketch.
Glimmer of hope or self-delusion?
Joost van Dreunen from NYU remains cautiously optimistic - or perhaps just realistic. He believes that Nintendo has already factored the tariffs into the original price. After all, the company has learned from the mistakes of the first Trump administration and diversified its supply chain.
But he warns that the markets - such as Vietnam - are once again the target of current measures. And even if Nintendo is reluctant to adjust the price, external pressure could ultimately lead to a U-turn.
Piers Harding-Rolls from Ampere Analysis also sees Nintendo in a dilemma. On the one hand, they want to save face and not change the introductory price. On the other hand, sticking to it could do more harm than good in the long term if costs continue to rise.
And what does that mean for us?
Rhys Elliott from Alinea Analytics sums it up most clearly - with a certain resigned cynicism: "These tariffs will lead to a poorer nation. Period." Nintendo and Co. could relocate production facilities, but who's to say that the next country won't be hit with a punitive tariff tomorrow? Stable planning is impossible.
The consequence: higher prices, lower margins, fewer games, less enthusiasm for innovation. Welcome to the economic endgame version of the 21st century. And this applies to the entire industry, and PlayStation and Xbox are by no means spared.
What remains is the bitter realization: gaming is no longer just a technological or creative topic - it has long since become a plaything of geopolitical arbitrariness. Analysts, manufacturers, retailers - everyone is poking around in the fog.
And we, the gamers? We stand by, press F for our wallets and hope that "Switch 2" is not just the name of the new Nintendo console, but also our payroll mode.
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